[HVDEN] Night five « Mafia Archives « Forum

Deybrek

Ok, so for a strategy for tonight, I think our hand has been forced on killing Grendel – I say this because at some point, assuming it isn’t tonight, Grendel is going to notice that a Nurse power is a better one lategame than a Doctor power, and he’s going to hand Broomweed…

A Roleblocker Dish.

Broom should be protecting herself, you, or Rake tonight. Rake should be protecting himself, or possibly Drake tonight.

Biggest question… Do we know if roleblocking prevents the night kill? Because if not, I have a thought.

It does.

it’s bread.

Also we need to work out the identity of the double voter fast

it’s bread.

Deybrek

…I don’t need to know much about what’s happening in Socialite chat, but I’d like a heads up if Drake argues against Fallen as a pickup, even subtly, because that might give a clue to the answer.

There are actually several possibilities here, and I think the most likely is that one of the factions is based around Doublevoting – I’m not sure we can figure it out. If it’s just one person, and it’s not Fallen, then the worst possible conclusion is that it’s the one person who both had the motive -and- skill to pull off framing Fallen as Doublevoter, and…

…Didn’t we say that a Tracker was a much worse version of a Beholder? We hypothesized that Drake likely had something secondary, such as how DP had Vengeful?

Deybrek

If this is the case, it would explain all of Drakes grandstanding about how “very annoyed” he was going to be if votecounts failed by one at the last minute. I always thought that was an odd addition.

Really, though, if our main point was that we saw the doublevotes disappear the day Pio was flipped, if the doublevoter just didn’t think it necessary to push when the entire town was after him, it could be anyone.

In the socialite chat they’re arguing that broom and I might be a team and that you might be 3P

it’s bread.

They still want your blood next though.

it’s bread.

Deybrek

Honestly, at this point I’m just glad to hear that literally anyone thinks that literally any non mafiat in the game is suspicious. Part of my end of day posting was to try not to be Brooms target, because if I am, that’s one thing I absolutely cannot survive. Even being Drakes target again would be preferable, but with that, there’s a chance he watches Broom…

Of course, if Drake watches Broom watch me, then she says I looks suspicious…

Also, if there were one thing I’m proud of, it’s that Drake has wanted my blood since Day 1, and I’m still here. That literally just frustrates how it’s made it impossible to protect people, because anyone I try to protect gets on his list -immediately-. The only reason I was able to negotiate to protect you is because I knew Broom would want to look into you next, and that doesn’t require me.

From our standpoint, all I can think of is that I need to target Grendel: A rolecop is something fatal to you. I’d also consider having you target Lunch. If he puts you and Broom as mafiats, it makes sense from your perspective to use that offensively, especially since he’s on the fringe/unknown enough to be a potential Mafia target, or member. He’s been either fairly or unfairly on a votetrain. Win on both sides of Nurse.

…I may not like how few options we have, but at least we have those.

Deybrek

Alternatively, the other option. There are a couple of thoughts we have on who the doctor was. If it’s Rake, there’s a small chance that he thinks that Drake isn’t the target for tonight after it failed last night, and tries to protect Fallen, to bring them into the Socialites. There’s also still a vanishingly small chance that Lunch is the Doctor, but no one is implying that. If you’ll forgive me being dramatically nerdy with numbers, I feel like there’s a vaguely above 25% chance that Drake is unguarded tonight. As the final remaining Occultation member, he’s the last real threat to your role (Assuming Grendel is an inventor and not a ninja baker and thus cannot out you.)

…I have some thoughts on the construction on the game. If we look at the roles we’ve seen, each of us, the five Mafiats has had about three people in place that can mess with us, which I think is intentional. That would explain why all three of the supposed ‘O’ faction members have been people who are a threat to you, specifically. Occultation means ‘to obscure’, and you’re the roleblocker. Xedic could counterclaim any roleclaim you could do, and Drake/DP have roles that bypass your godfather status to pinpoint you as the target.

In fact, and I won’t ask you to confirm, I’d bet they were mentioned in your message night 0? If that’s the case, we have a -lot- more info… Because I think that Rake, much like yourself, is an antediluvian… which was mentioned in mine. If they were protective roles, (or people who have special abilities that mess with me on death)… The factions make sense.

Deybrek

If we follow that logic, I’m willing to launch myself against Drake one more time. I’m much less certain it will work, but there’s a tiny chance. And if we’re right, that -may- leave you in the clear. If that’s wrong, though, we have Grendel. I feel like no matter what I do, our strategy relies on you, so I want to leave it up to you what level of risk you want to take and what kind of gameboard you want to potentially be left with after I’m gone.

Deybrek

Well, I say after I’m gone, but I think I’ve got a 50/50 shot of being able to survive tomorrow. I don’t think Drake is watching me: He assumes I’m an easy target tomorrow, and if he’s got a reason to have one weakness right now, it’s hubris. He might watch you, if he wants to try to catch you visiting two people, or he might start building a case on Broom. I’m pretty sure it’s you, though.

Broom is 100% targetting herself with doctor dish, and.. Fallen in the best case, Lunch/rake in mid case, me at worst. That’s ranked basically on her analysis of the final posts I made, and a vague level of trust in my analysis. She’s probably going to defend one of my targets tomorrow if she doesn’t instakill me, which is going to be a problem, but we’ll see what we can do.

Deybrek

…Huh. Also, if you need to flavor your role, make sure your name is Italian. In fact, the closer you can sound to being a member of the non assassins from Assassins Creed, the better. I think I understand kind of a bit about the construction of this game.

Deybrek

Anyway, just let me know who you want dead, and I’ll do my best to make it happen.

Deybrek

…Unsure if this matters, but I also note that there were no doublevotes Day 2, after you had Roleblocked Drake. Also, he had a big hissy fit at the beginning of the day trying to figure out if his “role” fizzled or his “action”, which didn’t make sense at the time.

So. I now feel pretty confident that Drake is indeed, a doublevoting Tracker.

I think we take the risk and aim for Drake. If we can get him out of the game that’s a huge boon. I can roleblock Rake or Lunch, pray that we hit the doctor or that Drake isn’t seen as a priority target since he is ‘assumed’ safe.

My role PM didn’t mention the occultation faction you’re right about the risks he specifically poses. I also think his death will provide a huge morale hit to town if we can pull it off.

My only concern is Broom’s doctor dish. That’s an extra protection that may go to Drake tonight. What do you think of it?

it’s bread.

Regardless of what happens from here we’ve played an incredibly strong game in a situation like this where the deck has been extremely stacked against us from basically minute 1. Neither of us should still be here, yet we are. That’s something to be proud of. I’m so glad I get to see this through to the end with you, Dey.

it’s bread.

Deybrek

I don’t have words for how much I appreciate you saying that. I agree. It has been an honor.

Ok then, yeah! I say, when you’ve been backed into a complete corner, if you see a chance at glory, go for it with all of your might!

I’m 100% not worrying about the Doctor Dish – I think that even if Broom did have a plan to protect Drake with it, she knows that there’s a good chance that she was a targetted Cop, and she also saw me mention that the Doctor dish “Doesn’t have side effects”, so regardless of her trust level in me, that feels like a pinned strategy – She knows you know she’s a cop, and she has good reason to believe you won’t protect her tonight after that. I feel like the other possibility is she takes a risk of holding on to it to use for a future night, but if Drake goes down, that doesn’t actually matter.

I have no idea how you would explain protecting Rake or Lunch, at all. If you’re confident in that, though, I feel like Rake is more likely to be a Doctor than Lunch.

Deybrek

…Although, looking back, maybe you can get something out of this: Day 1, one of Lunch’s first questions:

If you were mafia, Who would be your first choice for N1 kill and why?

I’ve never played with Lunch before, but… Is that a readworthy tell? I’m going back over the archives and that stands out to me.

Heck, there’s a lot just in Day 1 I hadn’t noticed before.

hell I could block a relative inactive like Sariend and argue if the night kill fails to resolve (and you aren’t tracked) that we have inactive scum who is only coming active to perform night kills

it’s bread.

I’ve mentioned suspicion of inactives plenty of times before, enough that it’s in character for me to try that when going on the offensive as a nurse.

it’s bread.

Deybrek

You know what? That’s -extremely- valid. So let’s go for it. I think the stage is set to block Lunch and Kill Drake. If Rake is the doctor, there’s a chance he feels threatened enough to self protect after our dispute yesterday.

If it’s Lunch, then it makes some sense to protect the person who put the final hammer on Captain. If he’s suspicious due to inactivity, then that makes him a good target for both ends of a nurse protect. The fact that the real reasons are reversed are just icing on the cake. Literally the only reason not to nurse him would be definite knowledge that he is the doctor, and even we, the Mafia, don’t have that.

So I say go for it. I recommend Blocking Lunch, and Killing Drake. If it fails, we stay in more or less the same situation…

If it works, we’ve written a legend.

Godspeed Dey

it’s bread.

BTW, the next few irl days are travel days for me so if I’m slightly quiet Day 6 that’s why!

it’s bread.

Deybrek

Oh, congrats, and enjoy!